News Analysis

Decades in the Making: The Liberal Collapse

Tony Nagy · Director & Policy Specialist · Policy Counsel Advisory

South Australia has voted. Labor won in a landslide. But the real story is the Liberal collapse — and it has been decades in the making.

~19% primary vote. Their worst result in modern history. One Nation at ~22%, eclipsing them in their own state. This is not a blip. It is a structural realignment.

The moderates — Hill, Vanstone, Pyne, Birmingham — were pushed out. Culture wars replaced the centre ground. The door was left open, and One Nation walked through it.

As Don Farrell and Tom Koutsantonis both said on election night: you win from the middle. You ignore the centre at your peril.

One Nation cannot be dismissed. They are the voice of an emerging constituency with real grievances — felt instinctively, even where the policy answers remain unclear. Australia has never had to confront this kind of structural populism before.

For Labor, the mandate is clear. Delivery. Genuine economic reform. Tax reform that backs productive investment over speculation. Long-suffering wage and salary earners deserve better than another decade of deferred action.

Hawke and Keating were up for that fight. How about Albanese and Chalmers?

The coming federal budget will tell us a great deal.

Tony Nagy · Director & Policy Specialist, Policy Counsel Advisory · Adviser to the Bannon Government 1987–93